Shipper Demand Index
Leading indicator — not what happened last week, but what's about to move
Industry activity → freight demand → rate pressure
Most freight data is lagging — last week's spot rates, tender rejections, fuel prices. The Shipper Demand Index is leading. It reads the real activity upstream (building permits, PMI new orders, port imports, rig counts, harvest forecasts) and translates it into freight signals 30–90 days before they hit your lanes.
Composite Demand Index
Weighted average of 5 industry scores. Composite above 55 signals broad freight expansion.
Demand by Industry
Snapshot across key sectors (0–100)
Industry Demand Scores
Retail Demand Detail
Retail restocking surge is building — dry van capacity set to tighten
12-Month Score Trend
Freight Impact
Retail restocking surge is building — dry van capacity set to tighten
Inventory-to-sales ratio has dropped to 1.28, the lowest reading in 9 months. Port of LA/LB imports are up 12% YoY and containers are clearing terminals faster than they can be repositioned. Retailers are ordering ahead of summer demand, and replenishment volume will hit inland DCs over the next 30–45 days.
Rate Move
+4% to +7%
Window
30–45 days
Top Lanes to Watch
- LA → Dallas
- Savannah → Chicago
- Newark → Atlanta
- Long Beach → Phoenix
Underlying Metrics (normalized from raw values against reference bands)
| Metric | Current Value | Reference Band | Normalized (0–100) | Weight | Source | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales Growth (YoY) | 3.2% | 0 – 6 % | 52 | 30% | Census Bureau Retail Sales | Monthly |
| Inventory-to-Sales Ratio(inverse) | 1.28 | 1.2 – 1.6 ratio | 75 | 35% | Census Bureau | Monthly |
| Port of LA/LB Imports (YoY %) | +12.1% | -5 – 15 % | 80 | 25% | Port of LA / Long Beach | Weekly |
| Freightos Baltic Index | 2,184 | 1200 – 3500 index | 42 | 10% | Freightos Baltic Index | Weekly |
Composite score = Σ (weight × normalized) = 66. Momentum (+10.1) = current score − avg of previous 3 months.
30 / 60 / 90 Day Demand Forecast
What's about to happen to your lanes, by equipment and region
| Horizon | Industry | Equipment | Regions | Direction | Magnitude | Trigger |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 days | Manufacturing | Dry Van | Great Lakes, Texas Gulf | Rising | +3–6% | PMI new orders 54.2 → shipments convert in 30–45 days |
| 30 days | Retail | Dry Van / Intermodal | Midwest, East Coast | Rising | +4–7% | Port LA/LB imports +12% YoY, inventory ratio at 9-mo low |
| 60 days | Energy | Tanker / Flatbed | Permian, Eagle Ford | Falling | -2–4% | Rig count fell to 588 (-2.3%), stocks building |
| 60 days | Construction | Flatbed | Southeast, Texas | Rising | +8–12% | Q1 permits +6.4%, materials move 60–90 days later |
| 90 days | Construction | Flatbed / Dry Van | Mountain West | Rising | +5–8% | Housing starts 1.52M (SAAR), ABI at 52.4 |
| 90 days | Agriculture | Bulk/Hopper / Flatbed | Midwest, Plains | Rising | +10–18% | Harvest window opens Aug–Oct (seasonal) |
How the score is calculated
Each industry score is a weighted composite of 3–5 public economic metrics. Every metric is normalized to a 0–100 scale against a fixed realistic reference band defined per metric (so scores stay comparable across time):
normalized = clamp((value − rangeLow) / (rangeHigh − rangeLow) × 100, 0, 100) score = Σ (weight_i × normalized_i) momentum = score_this_month − avg(score of previous 3 months)
- ≥ +5 Rising 📈 — build capacity
- ≤ −5 Falling 📉 — reposition
- Between Stable → hold
Each metric uses a fixed realistic reference band (rangeLow→0, rangeHigh→100). `inverse: true` flips the scale so that lower raw values produce a higher (bullish-for-freight) normalized score — used for inventory/stock-build metrics.
Lag relationships we track
These are the historical lags baked into the forecast layer:
- Building permits Flatbed demand60–90 days
- ISM new orders Dry van demand30–45 days
- Port imports Intermodal / dry van2–4 weeks
- Harvest forecasts Reefer / hopper2–6 weeks
- Rig count Tanker / oilfield flatbed4–8 weeks
Data Sources
All inputs are public. The moat is the translation layer — turning government data into lane signals.
| Sector | Source | Metric | Frequency | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Construction | U.S. Census Bureau | Housing starts, permits, spending | Monthly | Open |
| Construction | AIA Architecture Billings Index | Forward-looking design activity | Monthly | Open |
| Retail | U.S. Census Bureau | Retail sales, inventory/sales ratio | Monthly | Open |
| Retail | Port of LA / Long Beach | Container import volumes | Weekly | — |
| Retail | Freightos Baltic Index | Ocean container rates | Weekly | Open |
| Agriculture | USDA WASDE | Crop production forecasts | Monthly | Open |
| Agriculture | USDA Grain Transportation Report | Rail/truck grain movement | Weekly | — |
| Agriculture | CME Group | Commodity futures (corn, soy, wheat) | Daily | Open |
| Manufacturing | ISM | Manufacturing PMI + new orders sub-index | Monthly | Open |
| Manufacturing | Federal Reserve (FRED) | Industrial production index | Monthly | Open |
| Energy | EIA Petroleum Supply | Refinery output, fuel movement | Weekly | Open |
| Energy | Baker Hughes | Active drilling rigs | Weekly | Open |